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Every prediction is graded against the real result — nothing cherry-picked. This is the model's live, out-of-sample record, as of 3 Nov 2026 — distinct from the historical backtest.
Over 2,571 graded picks the model was, on average, 49% confident and right 51% of the time — a excellent calibration match (gap 1.8 pts, ECE 2.1%). Last 90 days: 51% over 2,565 picks.
Each dot is a confidence band. If the model is honest, dots sit on the dashed line: a band we called ~70% should win ~70% of the time. Dot size = number of predictions.
| Confidence band | Avg predicted | Actual | Predictions |
|---|---|---|---|
| 33–40% | 38% | 38% | 542 |
| 40–50% | 44% | 46% | 1020 |
| 50–60% | 54% | 55% | 576 |
| 60–70% | 64% | 71% | 288 |
| 70–80% | 74% | 86% | 116 |
| 80–90% | 83% | 65% | 26 |
| 90–100% | 91% | 100% | 3 |
Want the deeper numbers? See the historical backtest (walk-forward across seasons) and the verifiable ledger — every day's picks are sealed with a hash before kickoff, so this record can't be edited after the fact.
Statistical estimates graded against real results. Past accuracy doesn't guarantee future results. For information and entertainment only. 18+.