This week in review
Our live record for 28–3 Nov — graded against real results, hits and misses alike. Nothing cherry-picked.
315
predictions graded
57%
180/315 correct
0.200
avg RPS · book 0.205
5/14
right vs the market
Where we disagreed with the market
Matches where our model's pick differed from the bookmaker favourite — the honest test of whether the model sees something the market doesn't.
Moreirense v Estrela
Moreirense win (39%) · market favoured Estrela win
2–1
✓ model right
Ceuta v Sp Gijon
Sp Gijon win (39%) · market favoured Ceuta win
0–2
✓ model right
Lille v Lens
Lille win (38%) · market favoured Lens win
1–0
✓ model right
Leyton Orient v Cambridge
Leyton Orient win (38%) · market favoured Cambridge win
3–0
✓ model right
Erzurumspor v Corum
Corum win (37%) · market favoured Erzurumspor win
1–3
✓ model right
Troyes v Le Mans
Le Mans win (42%) · market favoured Troyes win
2–0
✗ market right
Every pick is calibrated and graded in the open — see the full record and verify it yourself.
The open ledger Get this week's picks — freeFigures are the model's live, out-of-sample record for the dates shown. RPS lower is better; "right vs the market" counts matches where our pick beat the bookmaker favourite. Not betting advice. 18+.