Model vs Market
Where our model's pick differs from the bookmaker favourite — the honest test of whether it sees something the market doesn't.
The market favours
Liverpool win
@ 1.50
Our model backs
Fenerbahce win
58% · @ 5.60
Fenerbahce v Liverpool · UEFA Champions League · Wed 4 Nov · 18:45. Model expected goals: Fenerbahce 1.8 – 0.9 Liverpool.
We publish the result afterward — in the weekly review and the open ledger.
This week's record Get daily picks — free"Edge" is the model's probability minus the market's implied probability for the same outcome. A disagreement is not a tip and no outcome is certain. Not betting advice. 18+.