What a probability really means
A 70% pick still loses about 3 times in 10 — and that's the model working correctly, not failing.
This is the most important page here. Read it once and you'll get far more out of PredictXI.
Probabilities are not promises
When the model says a team has a 70% chance to win, it means: across many matches like this one, that outcome happens roughly 7 times in 10. Which also means it fails about 3 times in 10. A losing 70% pick isn't a broken model — it's the 3-in-10 showing up, exactly as expected.
Calibration: making the numbers honest
A model is well-calibrated when things it calls "70%" actually happen ~70% of the time. We continuously re-tune our probabilities against our own graded results so they stay honest — you can hold us to it on the accuracy page.
Variance is normal
Even strong picks lose in streaks, and long shots come in. Judge the model over dozens of predictions, not one weekend. The track record and calibration chart are the right lens.
No one can tell you the result
No model — ours or anyone's — knows a result in advance. Anyone selling "sure" or "guaranteed" football tips is selling you a story. We show probabilities precisely because certainty doesn't exist here.