Value signals explained
Where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's price — with the margin stripped out.
Value isn't "who will win" — it's "is the price right".
Implied probability
Every odd carries an implied probability: odds of 2.00 imply 50%, 4.00 imply 25%, and so on. Bookmakers also bake in a margin (their edge), so implied probabilities across a match add up to more than 100%.
The edge
We strip out that margin and compare the bookmaker's fair implied probability with our model's probability. When ours is higher by a set threshold, that's a value signal — the price looks generous relative to the model.
Value ≠ a winner
A value signal means the price is favourable, not that the bet will win. Value pays off over many bets, through variance, not on any single match. Treat it as one input, and only ever stake what you can afford to lose. See bankroll basics.